Future Conditions Overview
Following the existing conditions assessment, the next step in the planning process is to analyze future multimodal travel needs and identify future deficiencies and gaps in the transportation infrastructure. The future conditions analysis combines information from the transportation inventory and needs analysis developed and reviewed in the existing conditions element with information about planned transportation improvements and anticipated change in population and employment.
OAR 660-012-0030(3)(a) and, for metropolitan areas, OAR 660-012-0100(3)(b) indicate that future transportation needs shall be based on population and employment forecasts and distributions, shall be consistent with the acknowledged comprehensive plan, and must be at least 20 years from the date the TSP is projected to be adopted. Depending on the scope of the project, developing or updating a TSP can take one or more years to complete. Accordingly, jurisdictions should set a longer time period for analysis. For example, a 22- or 23-year forecast may be needed to provide extra time to complete the planning and adoption process and to ensure that the plan horizon, or forecast year for the TSP, is at least 20 years from the point of adoption. This may not be possible in all cases. For example, if the regional travel demand model does not have a forecast year that is far enough into the future, the forecast year will need to be extended; otherwise, the TSP may not be a 20-year plan.
It is important that this step be accomplished in coordination with state, regional, and local transportation providers to ensure consistency with adopted plans, policies, and projects as well as those plans, policies, and projects currently underway. The product of the future conditions analysis is a technical memo. Information is typically presented in tabular and narrative form with maps showing where the transportation system may not meet local performance standards in the future, such as safety, travel options, and system completeness.