Step 4: Future Conditions

Future Deficiencies Determination

Jurisdictions should determine future deficiencies for all elements of the transportation system, consistent with elements assessed under the existing conditions analysis (e.g., roadway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight, rail, air, pipeline, and/or marine) as appropriate for the jurisdiction.

Shall

At a minimum, this step shall include:

Compare future travel demand to future capacity for all travel modes feasible per the jurisdiction through the planning horizon, based on the performance measures or measures of adequacy developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives.
Gaps and deficiencies may include, for example, areas of high crash rates, poor transit service, low bicycle and pedestrian level-of-service, and poor pavement conditions as well as absence of future connectivity for all modes, depending on the measures of adequacy developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives Step 2: Goals & Objectives.
Transportation deficiencies may be considered to potentially occur where future travel demand or conditions would exceed the threshold of the adopted performance standard(s) or would not be expected to meet other applicable goals and performance standards and measures.
Further guidance is provided by mode below.

Should

In addition to the items listed above, this step should include the following elements when locally appropriate and when funding allows:

Clearly describe deficiencies and, where possible, the time period in which they are likely to occur. For example, some intersections may not fail until the 20th year of the planning horizon while others may fail within 5 years. Another example could be an area of a jurisdiction with low levels of transit service where low-income housing is forecast to increase substantially in the next 10 years.
Identify infrastructure not able to sustain an earthquake and subsequent effects as a potential future deficiency.
Identify deficiencies in the pedestrian and bicycle network associated with heat island effects, traveler comfort and where street trees or other mitigations may improve travel.
Identify resiliency-type deficiencies associated with non-operational deficiencies for transportation infrastructure in areas that are exposed to natural hazards (flooding, landslides, wildfire, heat), projected impacts from rising sea levels, or seismic/tsunami events.

Modal Future Deficiencies Determination

Deficiencies are defined as the difference between the current transportation system and adopted standards or targets and may reflect performance measures and evaluation criteria developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives. Deficiencies are capacity or design constraints that limit but do not prohibit the ability to travel by a given mode.

Air Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
Evaluation of multimodal access to air facilities, including bicycle parking, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Should
Evaluation in intermodal linkages for passengers and goods, based on future no-build condition	Should	Should

Cities and counties must consider the needs of all users when identifying future deficiencies in the bicycle system. Within non-metropolitan areas, local governments must identify needs along all arterial and collector streets. Within metropolitan areas, local governments must identify needs along all streets, including local streets, as well as off-street paths and trails within climate-friendly areas, within Metro Region 2040 centers, within one-quarter mile of all primary and secondary schools, and along bicycle boulevards. Outside of these areas, future deficiencies must be considered for arterials and collectors only (OAR 660-012-0605[2]).

The following table identifies the bicycle elements that shall (Shall) be addressed in the future deficiencies determination to meet best practices and/or ensure compliance with the TPR. The table also identifies elements that should (Should) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows, and elements that, although not typically required or critical to the development of most TSPs, could (Could) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows.

Bicycle Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
If the future no-build condition or future land use conditions impact the input factors, analysis of bicycle connectivity along key study corridors using one of two methodologies: Conduct a Qualitative Multimodal Assessment of the bicycle network (see ODOT's Analysis and Procedures Manual for technical guidance) Conduct a bicycle level-of-traffic stress analysis of the bicycle network (see ODOT's Analysis and Procedures Manual for technical guidance)	Should	Should
Evaluation of gaps in bicycle access to/from key destinations, including transit stops, schools, shopping areas, medical facilities, civic and recreational uses, and trails, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall
Analysis of bicycle risk-based safety issues (see ODOT's Bicycle Safety Implementation Plan for additional information), based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall

Marine Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
Identification of any capacity issues related to infrastructure/programs (water taxis, ferries, etc.) that use navigable lakes, streams, or rivers for transportation of goods and passengers, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Shall	Should
Identification and description of any capacity issues related to port facilities and operations, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Shall	Should
Evaluation of multimodal access to port facilities, including bicycle parking, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Should
Identification and description of any issues related to land availability and use, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Could	Could
Identification of the adequacy of marine port parking facilities, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Could	Could

Cities and counties must consider the needs of all users when identifying future deficiencies in the pedestrian system. Within non-metropolitan areas, local governments must identify needs along all arterial and collector streets. Within metropolitan areas, local governments must identify needs on all streets, including local streets, as well as off-street paths and trails within climate-friendly areas, within Metro Region 2040 centers, and within one-quarter mile of all primary and secondary schools. Outside of these areas, gaps and deficiencies must be considered for arterials and collectors only (OAR 660-012-0605[2]).

The following table identifies the pedestrian elements that shall (Shall) be addressed in the future deficiencies determination to meet best practices and/or ensure compliance with the TPR. The table also identifies elements that should (Should ) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows, and elements that, although not typically required or critical to the development of most TSPs, could (Could) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows.

Pedestrian Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
If the future no-build condition or future land use conditions impact the input factors, analysis of pedestrian connectivity along key study corridors using one of two methodologies: Conduct a Qualitative Multimodal Assessment of the pedestrian network (see ODOT's Analysis and Procedures Manual for technical guidance) Conduct a pedestrian level of traffic stress analysis of the pedestrian network (see ODOT's Analysis and Procedures Manual for technical guidance)	Should	Should
Evaluation of gaps in pedestrian access to/from key destinations, including transit stops, schools, shopping areas, medical facilities, civic and recreational uses, and trails, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall
Analysis of pedestrian risk-based safety issues (see ODOT's Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety Implementation Plan for additional information) , based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall
Evaluation of marked crossings, including location, spacing, treatments, etc., based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall

Pipeline Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
In coordination with service provider capital facility plans, identification of any deficiencies associated with pipeline capacity, location, terminals, etc.	Shall	Shall

Rail Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
Evaluation of multimodal access to rail facilities, including bicycle parking	Should	Should
Evaluation of land use connections (e.g., access to industrial zoned areas)	Should	Should

The following table identifies the roadway elements that shall (Shall) be addressed in the future deficiencies determination to meet best practices and/or ensure compliance with the TPR. The table also identifies elements that should (Should) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows, and elements that, although not typically required or critical to the development of most TSPs, could (Could) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows.

Roadway Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
Identification and evaluation of street connectivity for higher classification streets (i.e., arterials and collectors) consistent with OAR 660-012-0020(2)(b) and 660-012-0045(3)(b), based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Shall	Should
Evaluation of future traffic operations at the identified study intersections and roadway segments consistent with the methodologies identified in the latest Highway Capacity Manual (see ODOT's Analysis and Procedures Manual for further guidance)	Shall	Should
Comparison of future traffic operations to state, regional, and local mobility and other local vehicle system performance standards and targets to identify deficiencies	Shall	Should
Evaluation of the local street network and the identification of areas where new local streets will be needed, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions. Cities and counties must plan local streets in climate-friendly areas and Metro Region 2040 centers to prioritize pedestrian and bicycle systems and be limited to local access for motor vehicles.	Should	Shall
Evaluation of the collector street network and the identification of new collector streets connected with local streets and arterials, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions. Cities and counties must plan collectors in climate-friendly areas and Metro Region 2040 centers to prioritize pedestrian, bicycle, and public transportation systems.	Should	Shall
Evaluation of the arterial street network, identification of new arterial streets connected with local streets and arterials, and designation of arterial streets as local access priority, through movement priority, or arterial segments in a climate-friendly area, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions.	Should	Shall
Evaluation of detailed transportation patterns with an origin/destination analysis if necessary	Could	Could
Comparison of access spacing along key study corridors to applicable standards and identification of deficiencies, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Could	Could

Cities and counties must work in close cooperation with transit service providers to complete the public transportation system element of the TSP. Cities and counties must consider the needs of all users when identifying future deficiencies in the transit system.

The following table identifies the public transportation elements that shall (Shall) be addressed in the future deficiencies determination to meet best practices and/or ensure compliance with the TPR. The table also identifies elements that should (Should) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows, and elements that, although not typically required or critical to the development of most TSPs, could (Could) be included when locally appropriate and when funding allows.

Public Transportation Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
Evaluation of gaps in the local transit network that serve key destinations, including schools, shopping areas, medical facilities, civic and recreational uses, and trails, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall
Evaluation of transit corridors, including priority and other transit corridors in areas with greater than 10,000 in population, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall
Evaluation of transit supportive facilities on priority and other transit corridors, including stations, hubs, stops, shelters, signs, and ancillary features, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Should	Shall
Qualitative multimodal assessment of the public transit system (see ODOT's Analysis and Procedures Manual for technical guidance) , based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Shall	Shall
Analysis of future public transit service using the methodologies identified in the Transit Capacity Manual and the Quality of Service Manual for service hours, service frequency, and service coverage, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Could	Could
Identification of potential deficiencies in service hours and frequency based on future population and employment density	Could	Could
Identification of potential gaps in service coverage based on future population and employment density	Could	Could
Analysis of where key community destinations are in proximity to transit, including schools, shopping areas, medical facilities, civic and recreational uses, and trails, based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Could	Could
Assessment of the travel sheds that inter-city or commuter service can help accommodate (maps showing shopping, schools, healthcare, parks, government buildings, etc., are valuable for this analysis), based on future no-build condition and future land use conditions	Could	Could

Truck Freight Element	Non-Metropolitan Area	Metropolitan Area
Discussion of roadway access and the use of performance measures or standards (e.g., congestion, condition, and safety) to identify existing and potential deficiencies related to the movement of freight on the National Highway System	Shall	Should
Identification of any physical deficiencies related to the movement of freight at intersections with significant truck traffic	Should	Should

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