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Step 4: Future Conditions

Future Deficiencies Determination

Jurisdictions should determine future deficiencies for all elements of the transportation system, consistent with elements assessed under the existing conditions analysis (e.g., roadway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight, rail, air, pipeline, and/or marine) as appropriate for the jurisdiction.

 Shall

At a minimum, this step shall include:

  • Compare future travel demand to future capacity for all travel modes feasible per the jurisdiction through the planning horizon, based on the performance measures or measures of adequacy developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives.
  • Gaps  and deficiencies may include, for example, areas of high crash rates, poor transit service, low bicycle and pedestrian level-of-service, and poor pavement conditions as well as absence of future connectivity for all modes, depending on the measures of adequacy developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives Step 2: Goals & Objectives.
  • Transportation deficiencies may be considered to potentially occur where future travel demand or conditions would exceed the threshold of the adopted performance standard(s) or would not be expected to meet other applicable goals and performance standards and measures.
  • Further guidance is provided by mode below.

 Should

In addition to the items listed above, this step should include the following elements when locally appropriate and when funding allows:

  • Clearly describe deficiencies and, where possible, the time period in which they are likely to occur. For example, some intersections may not fail until the 20th year of the planning horizon while others may fail within 5 years. Another example could be an area of a jurisdiction with low levels of transit service where low-income housing is forecast to increase substantially in the next 10 years.
  • Identify infrastructure not able to sustain an earthquake and subsequent effects as a potential future deficiency.
  • Identify deficiencies in the pedestrian and bicycle network associated with heat island effects, traveler comfort and where street trees or other mitigations may improve travel.
  • Identify resiliency-type deficiencies associated with non-operational deficiencies for transportation infrastructure in areas that are exposed to natural hazards (flooding, landslides, wildfire, heat), projected impacts from rising sea levels, or seismic/tsunami events.

Modal Future Deficiencies Determination

Deficiencies are defined as the difference between the current transportation system and adopted standards or targets and may reflect performance measures and evaluation criteria developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives. Deficiencies are capacity or design constraints that limit but do not prohibit the ability to travel by a given mode.


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