Director's Message

Looking into the future

Imagine trying to predict what will happen in your life two years from now. The challenge would be daunting, even if you tapped the best advisers you could find for input.

The department's forecasting unit is faced with these tests on an ongoing basis -- charged with predicting such items as the number of children in foster care, the number of Oregonians on the Oregon Health Plan, and the number of those needing long-term care.

These forecasts are critical because the department, legislators, the Governor's Office and others rely on them to make decisions around our budget and the policy issues impacting human services.

Because of some of the difficulties the department has faced in making these forecasts in the past, we have taken a number of steps to institute more reliable, scientific forecasting methodologies. We have also bolstered our staff and have gathered a panel of economic experts to help us verify our two-year projections.

This week, we talked about the changes we have been making in our forecasting unit with the legislative Ways and Means subcommittee, which is shaping our budget. Part of the department's budget proposal includes a package to make the forecasting unit a permanent part of the department and further strengthen its capacity.

Improving the forecasts

The department has also established an expert review process, which we discussed with the subcommittee. The expert review adjusts the base forecast that we make to reflect the anticipated impacts of major policy changes.

We have developed forecast steering committees composed of DHS executive, management, budget and program staff as well as representatives of the Legislative Fiscal Office and Department of Administrative Services. The steering committees meet at least three times during each forecast period to identify policy issues that may impact the forecast and to determine how these issues can be modeled.

The department also has established a Forecast Peer Review Group, made up of some of the key economic experts throughout the region. This panel includes: Art Ayre, state employment economist; Stephanie Bernell, OSU assistant professor; Kevin Hamler-Dupras, DHS lead forecaster for CAF; John Britton, LFO budget analyst; George Hough, Portland State University associate professor; Laura Leete, Willamette University Public Policy Research Center; Sue Porter, DAS Office of Economic Analysis; Thomas Potiowsky, Oregon state economist; Pam Teschner, DAS policy & budget analyst; Paul Warner, legislative revenue officer; Stephen Willhite, lead DHS senior forecaster, Kush Shrestha, lead DHS forecaster for SPD; and Gwen Grams, DHS forecast unit administrator.

The steps we are taking will help us to better forecast client caseloads and help facilitate the development of the department's performance measurement system. Through the improvements we have already made and those that we are proposing, the department is building a stronger, more reliable forecasting system that should serve the state for years to come.

Recognizing those who care for others

Families are Oregon's most important and constant care providers for individuals with special needs of all ages. Here at the department, we have long recognized that fact. We also know that those who provide this care need a "respite" -- periods for caregivers to take time off from the demands of the care they provide.

Oregon has been a national leader in building a respite care system that works and is available to families in every county of the state. Oregon's Lifespan Respite Care program affords caregivers some needed time for themselves to pursue other interests and stay healthy and provides social opportunities for a loved one.

Governor Kulongoski has proclaimed this week as Respite Care Awareness Week to recognize and acknowledge the contributions and challenges facing caregivers all over the state.

Nationally, consideration is being given to the Lifespan Respite Care Act, to help further build an effective respite system across the country. "Although respite care has been shown to help sustain family stability, improve family caregiver health and well-being, and avoid out-of-home placements, it remains in critical short supply in most states," according to a report by the President's Committee for People with Intellectual Disabilities.

We must continue to work to maintain coordinated systems with blended funding streams to help support families who provide crucial services to those with special needs. Oregon's Lifespan Respite provides a network of accessible respite services for people of any age. Resources and local contacts are at: http://egov.oregon.gov/DHS/spd/caregiving/ls_respite.shtml

Food for thought

"There is a time to let things happen, and a time to make things happen."

-- Author unknown

This message is intended for all department employees. Please read it electronically, if possible. Managers and supervisors are asked to share the message each week with employees who do not have email access.

If you have a disability and need this message to be provided to you in another format, please send an email to dhs.forms@state.or.us, or call (503) 947-5107. You can also fax your request to (503) 373-7690, or call (503) 947-5080 for TTY service. If you know of others who need this accommodation, please let them know it is available.